If you had to pick today’s most important calendar item based on its potential impact on the bond market, the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement would probably take the cake. Indeed, it made a dent at the 8:15am release time, but the domestic economic data at 8:30am swung for the fences. Philly Fed led the way with several components at the weakest levels since the initial pandemic shock in early 2020. The 6-month outlook was the lowest since 1979!
Jobless Claims broke above 250k for the first time since moving below in late 2021 (reinforces gradual uptrend from the March 2022 lows).
In addition to the econ data, the ECB expounded on its new TPI (transmission protection instrument), which is just another abbreviation that will allow it to buy more bonds. ECB president Lagarde said they are prepared to “go big” with the new program. Those comments pushed EU yields quickly lower around 9:15am, and US yields followed proportionally.
In the bigger picture, this keeps 10yr yields locked perfectly within the range set by last week’s trading.