Waller Unintentionally Sends Yields Higher

The most hotly anticipated calendar event at the start of this holiday-shortened week was a Q&A with the Fed’s Christopher Waller, hosted by Brookings.  The questions were as solid as you’d expect from David Wessel and Waller’s answers were informative–at least for market participants who may have misunderstood his role in the current Fed canon. Specifically, Waller has been dovish in terms of his impact on rates of late.  Today, his comments were hawkish–not because they were actually hawkish, but rather because they weren’t as dovish as traders expected.  Rates reacted accordingly with both MBS and Treasuries losing more than a small amount of ground.

Econ Data / Events

NY Fed Manufacturing

-43.7 vs -5.0 f’cast, -14.5 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:29 AM Weaker overnight, but pushing back a bit now.  10yr still up 5.8bps at 3.999.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19).

12:23 PM 2 way weakness after Waller comments, but now at the day’s weakest levels.  10yr up 12bps and MBS down half a point

03:00 PM Additional weakness into the 2pm hour, but bouncing modestly since then.  MBS down half a point.  10yr up 12.3bps at 4.064.

Published On: January 16, 2024 / Categories: Mortgage News /