Uneventful Gains Despite Apparent Market Movers

It was an interesting day for the bond market.  Yields dropped to the lowest levels in more than 3 weeks amid several apparently valid motivations.  But upon closer inspection, most of the improvement happened far enough away from those motivations to give them much credit.  On a day with JOLTS (job openings data) and a Powell testimony, the most obvious market mover was a series of headlines and trading halts surrounding NYCB, although those ultimately canceled each other out.  We’re left with modest but important improvement ahead of Thursday’s ECB announcement and Friday’s jobs report.

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment

140k vs 150k f’cast, 107k prev

Job Openings

8.863m vs 8.9m f’cast, 9.026m prev

Market Movement Recap

09:00 AM Sideways to slightly weaker overnight, but gains kicked in at 7am.  10yr down 2.8bps at 4.123.  MBS up an eighth.  ADP and Powell’s prepared remarks doing no damage.

10:01 AM Minimal reaction to JOLTS.  10yr down 4.7bps at 4.104.  MBS up 9 ticks (.28).

12:31 PM Gains on NYCB circuit breaker at 11:53am ET.  MBS up 10 ticks (.31).  10yr down 6bps at 4.092

02:50 PM Some volatility surrounding NYCB headlines.  MBS off highs, up a quarter point on the day.  10yr down 4.3bps at 4.108.

Published On: March 6, 2024 / Categories: Mortgage News /