Bonds had a mixed overnight session with modest gains initially and moderate losses during European hours. In a bit of a break from the norm, German Bunds (10yr yields) provided a bit more leadership for US Treasuries overnight, but UK bonds are still more volatile overall. Note, the following chart shows the change in yields so far this week, and not outright levels.
US PPI data added to the weakness early, but yields found support near 3.97% despite weaker levels in Europe. If US yields can avoid being pushed above the 4.01% technical level, they will have made it to the next big flashpoint–Thursday’s CPI data–without violating the recent range. We’re in “watch and wait” mode until then, or unless something significant happens between now and then. The only wild card in that regard would be today’s 2pm release of the Minutes from the 9/21/22 Fed meeting.
In the bigger picture, we’re still near the higher end of the recent trading range. Tomorrow’s CPI ostensibly has the power to challenge the high end of that range if it’s far enough above forecasts, but likely not nearly enough power to get yields back down to the bottom of the range.