Recall that last Friday saw an extremely sharp selling spree led by UK and exacerbated by domestic data (consumer inflation expectations). Yields ended the week over 4%, which has been a consistently supportive zone over the past 3 weeks. Bonds only needed a semblance of a reason to bounce and they found it in UK headlines (and the subsequent UK rally). Specifically, the new finance minister is reversing much of the “mini-budget” announcement that rocked markets at the end of September. UK bonds quickly erased all of Friday’s losses with US bonds doing a smaller version of the same move before running into a bit of resistance that coincided with the 9:30am NYSE open.
As noted in the chart above, the UK 10yr is floating on its own hidden y-axis. In reality, that axis would be much bigger than that of the US 10yr yield. It’s easier to appreciate the relative scale of the move if we use the same axis for both:
From here, we can continue to keep an eye on the 4.0% zone in 10yr yields. Better still would be to monitor the yield curve, at least from a technical standpoint. Reason being, the -0.48% level has been even more relevant in the 2s/10s curve than 4.0% has been in 10yr yields.
The underlying implication is that shorter-term yields tend to lead the charge when the rate cycle rolls over. In other words, if the yield curve holds near or above -50bps, it’s still supportive even if rates are drifting slightly higher overall.