Bonds rallied at a solid pace overnight with gains in both Asian and European sessions. More impressive, however, have been the domestic session gains. Whereas US traders have generally been eager to push back against overnight gains in Europe, they’re taking the opposite approach today.
This break from the norm helps build the sense that bonds are confirming a new range trade, one that’s set to be resolved by next week’s economic data and Fed announcement. Of course, it’s entirely possible that the yellow lines below will be broken before next week, but in that case, we’d view it more as an expansion of a sideways range that will get it’s deciding “breakout votes” from next week’s data and events.
The gains are better than random based on Fed Funds Futures. While not quite on the same level as last Friday’s WSJ article reaction, there was yet another “Fed pivot” trading episode this morning. With the Fed on coms lockdown until next week, this wasn’t the product of any new insight to their line of thinking. This is just the way the market is setting up for the upcoming week of data and events.