The big monthly jobs report from the Labor Department (officially “The Employment Situation) is one of the most reliable sources of volatility for interest rates.  While this was much easier to observe before the pandemic, key economic reports have been getting more and more attention as the market looks for evidence that inflation and tighter Fed policy are taking a toll on the economy.  A weaker economy creates less demand for goods and services.  This serves two purposes for interest rates. 
Lower economic growth increases the appeal of safer haven investments like bonds.  Excess bond buying demand pushes rates lower. 
Lower demand can help prices fall, thus helping to cool inflation.  Inflation is an enemy of low rates, and a key reason for the tighter Fed policy that’s keeping upward pressure on rates.  So if inflation subsides, rates would move lower, all other things being equal.
All that to say: what’s bad for the economy is usually good for rates. Several recent reports have indeed shown clear signs of economic contraction.  This is a key reason that rates hit new long-term lows last week.  But this is a new week, and the two biggest economic reports were anything but weak.   Swinging for the fences . On a week where many sports fans thought fondly of the late Vin Scully’s famous “high fly ball into right field” call during the 1988 World Series, two of the heaviest hitting economic reports were also swinging for the fences.  

Published On: August 5, 2022 / Categories: Mortgage News /