Bonds are off to a weaker start today, but not in a major way and not due to any interesting developments.  In general, there was some optimism heading into yesterday’s CPI and while it briefly seemed to have been justified (in the first few minutes after the data), traders concluded that the Fed would only be more “on hold” when we heard from them next week.  Fed Funds Futures agreed:

This week’s Treasury auction cycle also helped explain some of yesterday morning’s weakness as traders positioned for the 10yr auction.  Today’s only relevant calendar item is the 30yr bond auction at 1pm.  It doesn’t have quite the pedigree of the 10yr auction, but being the last auction of the cycle, it could give way to a shift in tone after 1pm.  In general though, bonds have rejected the move toward 4% 10yr yields and are now waiting for Thursday’s econ data as well as next week’s Fed announcement. 

Published On: March 13, 2024 / Categories: Mortgage News /