Powell’s Jackson Hole speech may as well have been written in advance by anyone who’s done a remotely good job of paying attention to recent Fed comments as well as Powell’s press conference comments from July 27th. The bond market appropriately and accurately priced this eventuality into the higher yield levels over the course of the month and while the realization of these expectations is causing some volatility this morning, and it was further compounded by a 9:26am headline regarding a potential 75bp rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB).
How can we be so sure about the ECB effect? Pretty simple:
If the chart above doesn’t do a good enough job conveying the sense that Treasuries are experiencing volatility in the short term, but respecting the recent range, here’s how today’s range stacks up to the past 2 months (all of today’s Treasury yields are contained in the teal colored box):