When is interest rate momentum flatter than you can possibly imagine?  Today. We only break out the sarcastic and paradoxical juxtaposition of “sharply sideways” when things have really ground to a halt and with each of the past 3 days falling inside a 0.01% range, it’s that time again.   This happens, but it’s rare.  And it’s especially rare when rates have moved at one of the fastest paces on record in the preceding 6 weeks.   Does it mean anything significant?  It doesn’t mean anything bad. In fact, it’s arguably a good thing for rates to be able to hold a stable, sideways range that’s right in line with the lowest levels in 7 months WITHOUT any token attempt at a corrective bounce.   In other words, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see rates jump a bit after falling as much as they had by last Thursday.  If there’s an x-factor that helps explain the phenomenon, it could be as simple as the second half of December typically being a lower conviction trading environment.  A word of caution: a recent track record of low volatility is not a guarantee that it will continue.  The late December trading environment can also be prone to random volatility, but if that happens, it wouldn’t likely be on a grand scale.  Those sorts of bigger risks and opportunities would require input from the more important economic data in the first half of January.

Published On: December 19, 2023 / Categories: Mortgage News /