Tomorrow morning brings a much anticipated appearance from Fed Chair Powell at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. As is often the case leading up to this event, there’s a lot of speculation as to its potential importance and ample criticism of that speculation. Jackson Hole speeches are indeed highly variable in terms of their impact on interest rates. For the most part, the market has learned that, at the very least, it stands a chance to create meaningful volatility. In this sense, it’s like any other scheduled speech from Fed Chair Powell. One reason that there’s a bit more of a buzz than normal this time around is that the Fed has just recently acknowledged that it’s not thinking about upcoming rate hikes in the most aggressive possible terms, but rather, open to taking a more data-dependent approach. This doesn’t mean the Fed won’t hike rates in September–more like they haven’t already decided to hike as much as they possibly can. What might change their mind? Nothing between now and tomorrow morning! The Fed needs to see almost an entire month of additional economic data between now and the September 21st Fed announcement before firmly deciding on the next policy move. The highest probability cases can be made for a hike of either 0.50% or 0.75%. Powell may discuss these options tomorrow, but markets are more interested in getting a sense of what’s important to Powell, both in terms of specific data and general timelines.