Rates have been trending higher in fits and starts since August 2020, but the mortgage market was insulated from much of the pain due to its disconnect from Treasuries in 2020 (they typically correlate very well). 2021 saw the correlation return despite a few divergences due to things like mortgage-specific fee changes. By the end of 2021, both Treasury yields and mortgage rates were moving higher with a purpose. Enter 2022 , and with it, a fairly big shift in tone from the Federal Reserve regarding the pace at which it will be removing accommodation (fancy words for “doing things that aren’t helpful for interest rates”). That made January one of the worst months for mortgage rates of the past decade, but more of the damage was seen at the beginning of the month. Over the past few weeks, we could make a decent enough case that rate momentum had leveled off and was drifting sideways. That’s not an uncommon development after a big spike. The market might do this to catch its breath before the next move higher, or to signify a supportive ceiling before a moderately friendly correction. Such things aren’t decided ahead of time. They happen in response to ongoing input from data and events that matter to rates. The big monthly jobs report is something that typically matters a great deal to rates. Oddly enough, today’s jobs report was NOT seen having much of an impact for a few reasons. First off, analysts expected a much weaker number due to Omicron’s likely impact. Moreover, the Fed is almost exclusively focused on inflation right now as opposed to the labor market (employment and prices are the 2 key parts of the Fed’s job description). In short, no matter what today’s jobs numbers turned out to be, they weren’t likely to impact the market’s view of the Fed’s reaction.