Posted To: MBS Commentary
What To Make of The Post-NFP Rally Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) beat forecasts (850k vs 700k), which is normally something that would put upward pressure on rates. While that seemed like a threat for the first 14 minutes, things calmed down nicely from there and bonds hit their early closing times with moderate gains intact. Rather than try to force this outcome to fit some narrative (i.e. “this wasn’t enough to derail the Fed’s rate-friendly policies”), let’s keep things simple. The Fed has already been clear that NOTHING will be enough to derail those policies in the next month or three, so data like this merely helps shape the small scale trends inside a broader sideways range. We should also take today’s action with a grain of salt given the early close and 3.5-day weekend…(read more)
