Posted To: MBS Commentary
In econo-jargon, the word “real” typically refers to “inflation-adjusted.” So when we say that “real 10yr yields” hit record lows this morning, it could mean that bonds had a reason to rally or simply that inflation is rising massively. Spoiler alert: it’s the latter. In other words, regular old 10yr yields are higher this morning. Inflation adjusted yields are only at record lows due to a big spike in inflation, and even then only because “inflation-adjusted” relies on TIPS (Treasury inflation-protected securities) trading levels and TIPS didn’t get started until the 90s. Interestingly enough, most the current losses were already intact during the overnight session. After mixed signals on the first 2 days of the week, we’ll get a better sense…(read more)
