Struggling to Find a Rate-Friendly Narrative
Bonds sold off early in the overnight session and then more sharply after the start of European trading. A coordinated EU bond offering and temporary ceasefire in Ukraine were both cited as factors at the time. The bigger problem for bonds continues to be the fact that the same things that help are also the ones that hurt. Specifically, as geopolitical risk increases, so does safe haven demand for Treasuries. Unfortunately, that’s being more than offset by the inflationary implications associated with the invasion/war.
Econ Data / Events
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 11:30am, 1pm
Market Movement Recap
08:49 AM Bonds sold off for a variety of reasons overnight, but the most captivating headline at the time of the spike was the “humanitarian corridors” agreed to by Russia. 10yr up 7.4bps at 1.851 and MBS down almost 3/8s.
01:06 PM Some weakness leading up to and away from the 3yr Treasury auction. MBS down almost half a point with over an eighth of a point since the AM price plateau. 10yr yields up roughly 9bps, but potentially finding support at the 1.88% ceiling.
02:59 PM Previous weakness bounced reasonably well but not enough to get MBS back to the AM highs. Still down almost 3/8ths and 10yr still up 9.5bps.
04:20 PM A bit more late day improvement with MBS at the highs of the day, but still down a quarter point overall. 10yr yields are 3bps off their highs, but still almost 7bps higher on the day at 1.844.