Rocky Start to Fed’s Normalization Revelation Week
The Fed has been in full-fledged policy tightening mode in 2022, with multiple increases in the level of concern. More concern means faster removal of accommodation. The key reason for the big rate spike at the start of April was the allusion to balance sheet normalization, both by Vice Chair Brainard and in the Fed Minutes release. The Minutes laid out a specific target for normalization’s cruising altitude and it’s Wednesday’s Fed meeting that should specify the rate of climb.
Econ Data / Events
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 11:30am, 1pm
ISM Manufacturing PMI 55.4 vs 57.6 Prices, jobs, and new orders all decelerated
Market Movement Recap
09:02 AM Flat to slightly weaker overnight, partially closed due to London holiday. Additional selling at US open. 10yr up 2.4bps at 2.961. MBS down 6 ticks (.19).
12:08 PM Additional weakness heading into the 10am hour, but flat since then for MBS, and flat-to-slightly-weaker for 10yr yields (now up 5.5 bps to 2.992). MBS are down just over a quarter point.
03:09 PM Choppy, sideways trading near the lows of the day. MBS down 3/8ths at 98-28 (98.875) and 10yr yield up 6.5bps at 3.002%.