Bonds Holding Gains Despite Bounce in Stocks; Fed Minutes Uneventful
Today’s Fed Minutes proved to be every bit as uneventful as they might have been. There was no meaningful reaction in the bond market, though one might content that stocks improved as a result. Therein lies the day’s most interesting development: the biggest divergence between stocks and bond yields that we’ve seen in the past few weeks, or rather, the confirmation that bonds are “OK” with the divergence that actually began yesterday after the New Home Sales data. In other words, stocks have moved back up over the past 3 days while bonds have improved. That bodes well for the notion that the brunt of 2022’s uptrend in rates is over or at least on an extended vacation.
Econ Data / Events
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 11:30am, 1pm
Durable Goods 0.4 vs 0.6 f’cast Last month revised down to 0.6 from 1.1
Market Movement Recap
08:53 AM Slightly stronger in Europe after flat trading in Asia. Giving up some gains after Durable Goods, but still barely positive. 10yr down 1.6bps at 2.738 and MBS up 1 tick (0.03).
01:05 PM A bit weaker heading into the 5yr auction and little-changed afterward. 10yr yields up 1.1bps at 2.765 and MBS down 1 tick (0.03).
02:18 PM Limited volatility after Fed Minutes. MBS and Treasuries are both unchanged on the day. Stocks sold a bit at first, but are now back above pre-Fed levels.