MBS Live Morning: Slightly Weaker, But The Bounce Isn’t as Big as Oil Prices Suggest

Oil prices aren’t everything when it comes to the bond market, but they’ve been an important domino a few places farther up the chain due to their impact on inflation implications.  This was starkly evident yesterday as de-escalation hopes caused oil to plunge.  Inflation expectations and bond yields followed.  Now today, oil prices have fully recovered, but inflation expectations–while higher–are less than halfway back to yesterday’s highs.  This is helping bonds hold their ground better than they otherwise might.