For two Fridays in a row, bonds have leveled off in a way that offered some hope for consolidation and stability. And for two Mondays in a row, the week is starting off with heavy selling crushing that hope. Some of this dynamic can be chalked up to position paring heading into the weekend with traders re-upping short positions at the open, but there still needs to be some justification to remain in the bearish stance. In today’s case, it’s coming from hawkish central bankers, and an over-the-weekend oil price surge that has Fed rate hike expectations up and over 2% by the end of 2022.
That means a 25bp hike at every meeting plus at least one 50bp hike!
10yr yields are 8bps higher at 2.23+ to start the day and MBS are down more than a quarter point.
This will be a very quiet week in terms of scheduled econ data in the US, and with staffing levels potentially affected by Spring Break absences, lighter liquidity creates the risk for even more volatility.