Coming off of yesterday’s gigantic selling spree, bonds caught a break in the overnight session after briefly hitting even higher highs (10yr topped out at 2.169%). Given the oversold technicals and strong overnight volume, we can hold out some hope that we’re carving out a short-term consolidation/correction ahead of Wednesday’s Fed announcement.
In the slightly bigger picture, any time yields are pushing multi-year highs, it’s at least worth having a discussion about potential shifts in the trend based solely on momentum. It’s not oversimplifying things to say that rallies can happen simply due to an overabundance of selling pressure. We’ve seen this a few times even amid the general uptrend in yields over the past year.
I’m not shy about saying that stochastics and other technical indicators are little more than mileposts that help us measure momentum and turning points. They’re only ever accurate in hindsight, and fairly dangerous to rely upon as any sort of advance indicator (a lot of people will try to convince you otherwise, and if you believed that “Crossing Over with John Edward” was 100% legit, then technical analysis is definitely for you). But we can still talk about the potential shifts in order to be prepared in the event they pan out (or simply to have a bit of hope in an otherwise gloomy trend).
To be sure, the bigger picture trend is gloomy, but the gloomier it gets, the closer we get to a shift.