After a bumpy start to the week on Monday, the bond market is still trying to define a sideways range that serves as a waiting room where traders will eventually be given a long-term prognosis for the market. The critical events that determine that prognosis are yet to come. They include inflation data and the associated response of various central banks. At least those are the two biggest variables.
In the meantime, things like Treasury auctions and non-inflation-related economic reports will make for volatility inside the broader sideways range. Oil prices have also been a drag, but more than anything else, the European bond market has been responsible for the upward pressure seen in US yields so far this month.
The following two charts show US vs EU bond yields over 2 different time frames. Both have the same y-axis scale (which helps to show the outsized move in EU bonds putting upward pressure on US yields).
The big jump in EU bonds followed the record high Eurozone inflation data released on May 31st. Since then, EU bonds have increasingly gotten in position for a more
As far as scheduled events are concerned, today’s biggest potential market mover is the afternoon’s 10yr Treasury auction.