For the second morning in a row, bonds have traded on both sides of unchanged. While today’s swings haven’t been as big as yesterday’s, the lead changes have been quicker. Interestingly enough, a massive miss in the ADP data had little impact. Bonds then sold off after the Treasury refunding announcement only to rally back for no apparent reason at the 9:30am NYSE open (one of the Treasury market’s favorite things to do recently).
While the volatility might seem fairly interesting when following along moment-to-moment, there hasn’t been a significant break outside the prevailing floor/ceiling technical levels (although 1.77% is being challenged presently).
Even if 1.77% is broken, there’s a long way to go before breaking 1.71% and that continues to be the level marking the bottom of the bigger-picture consolidation range.
What’s the takeaway here? Nothing too scintillating, unfortunately. We can continue to entertain that bond buyers have seen enough weakness to pounce on yield spikes in the 1.80 neighborhood. At the same time, we’d have to keep assuming that the low 1.7’s constitute resistance until and unless they don’t anymore. Translation: we’re range-bound and waiting for the next breakout.