Posted To: MBS Commentary
The nature of the pandemic has made for some very mechanical and orderly market movement. The best example of this in the bond market is the “trend channel” (parallel lines marking the highs and lows, yellow lines in today’s chart) we’ve been following in 10yr yields since the beginning of November. Smaller scale examples include several consolidation patterns (converging lines marking highs and lows, teal lines in today’s chart), just like the one that’s been taking shape over the past 2 weeks. This one’s a bit different than the last two. On a negative note, this consolidation pattern is occurring at much higher yields, but on a plus note , it’s also resting near the top of the aforementioned trend channel. The implication is that IF we can manage to get…(read more)
