Limited Market Motivations as Traders Wait to Fill in Blanks

There was a palpable absence of relevant source material to provide guidance for the bond market today.  That was painfully obvious when the day’s biggest move followed headlines regarding the prospects for a slowdown in the European Central Bank’s rate hike trajectory.  Such headlines may have had little impact on bonds on a day with a big ticket economic report, but alas!  There are none to be found today and few to be found in the rest of the week.  Retail Sales and a new policy announcement from the Bank of Japan are in focus for Wednesday morning. 

Econ Data / Events

NY Fed Manufacturing

-32.9 vs -9.0 f’cast, -11.20 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:41 AM Moderately weaker overnight and pushing back in a stronger direction so far this morning.  10yr up 3bps at 3.533 and MBS down an eighth of a point.

10:20 AM EU bonds rallying on reports that ECB is considering slowing the pace of hikes after February.  It was almost enough to get US bonds into positive territory, but both bouncing now.  10yr up 1.3bps at 3.514.  MBS down 3 ticks (0.09).

12:53 PM Gradual weakness since 10am with a bigger illiquid drop in MBS just now.  Prices fluctuating between 6 ticks (.19) and 13 ticks (.41) lower due to illiquidity.  

02:29 PM Off the weakest levels and consolidating between the day’s highs and lows.  MBS down 6 ticks with better liquidity now.  10yr up 3.5bps at 3.537.

Published On: January 17, 2023 / Categories: Mortgage News /