In last Thursday’s Existing Home Sales press release, the NAR’s chief economist said “we’re witnessing a housing recession in terms of declining home sales and home building.”  Less than a week later, today’s Pending Home Sales release contains quite a different remark: “in terms of the current housing cycle, we may be at or close to the bottom in contract signings.” How can these two comments coexist in such close proximity?  At first glance, it might seem incongruent, but here’s the reality: the housing market is absolutely in a recession in the sense that sales have been receding/declining in a meaningful way for more than 6 months.  Pending Sales peaked last October and Existing Sales peaked in January.  If we want to use “bear market” metrics of 20% contractions, both easily meet the requirement. In other words, the “recession” comment is no great mystery and not a matter of debate.  So it’s really the “at or close to the bottom” comment that deserves scrutiny.  On that note, there’s no way to know if it’s premature or not.  Certainly, if econ data remains strong, inflation remains intractable, and the Fed extremely restrictive in terms of monetary policy, rates are far more likely to revisit June’s highs than July’s lows.  That could definitely dampen hope that housing has bottomed, but again, it depends on data that has yet to be revealed. What we know at the moment is that Pending Sales only declined a modest 1.0 percent in July–a major improvement from June’s 8.9% drop and well above the median forecast of -4.0%.  It’s not unfair to surmise that homebuying demand is waiting in the wings, ready to improve if affordability (via rates and/or home prices) does the same. 

Published On: August 24, 2022 / Categories: Mortgage News /