Inconsequentially Weaker After Data; We’ll Be Back on Monday

While Friday will technically be a half day for the bond market much like other things technically betray their true nature.  It’s a courtesy day for market functioning.  That left today as the last day of the week.  Bonds sold off modestly after the morning econ data, but due to the “end-of-week” trading going on, some of that could also be due to position-squaring among longs (i.e. traders who had been betting on lower rates booking profits and getting neutral until the market comes back to life no earlier than next week).   NOTE: there will be no custom alerts or commentary on Friday. The video in today’s recap provides a refresher on setting up custom alerts if you’re working with one of the few lenders that will be actively managing their rate sheets on the half day.

Econ Data / Events

Consumer Sentiment

61.3 vs 60.5 f’cast, 63.8 prev

1yr inflation expectations

4.5 vs 4.4 f’cast/prev

5yr inflation expectations 

3.2 vs 3.2 f’cast/prev

Jobless Claims

209k vs 225k f’cast, 233k prev

Continued Claims

1840k vs 1862k prev

Durable Goods

-5.4 vs -3.1 f’cast, 4.0 prev

Core Durable Goods

-0.1 vs +0.1 f’cast, -0.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:27 AM Slightly stronger overnight, but pushing back after data.  MBS down an eighth.  10yr up 2.6bps at 4.424.

11:43 AM MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 2.2bps at 4.420

03:26 PM Flat after the post-data weakness.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr yields up 2bps at 4.418

Published On: November 22, 2023 / Categories: Mortgage News /