At the end of July, the prevailing concern in the mortgage industry was that rates were falling at an unhealthy pace. The good news is that as we approach the end of August, no one needs to be concerned about that anymore! The bad news is hopefully obvious. The average 30yr fixed rate is back in the upper 5% range with some lenders already in the low 6’s. As has been and continues to be the case, the average lender makes more money at 5.625% versus 5.75%. The same is true of 6.125% and 6.25%. Counterintuitive yes, but there’s a reason (dive deep HERE if you’re interested). Rather than view the recent rate spike as the product of one or two individual events, it’s better thought of as a general correction to the overly-aggressive drop in July. In other words, rates are finding their range somewhere below the highest levels of the year and the recent lows. Those highs and lows should serve as firm boundaries unless there’s a big change in the economy or with inflation. It’s worth noting that “the economy” isn’t as simple as “GDP.” The type of economic weakness required for a sustained drop in rates is better measured in terms of the labor market. Even then, inflation would need to be falling more convincingly than it has so far.