“Higher For Longer” Fears Becoming a Reality After JOLTS

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is not a report we paid much attention to as a market mover until the past year or two.  Since then, it has increasingly been mentioned by the Fed.  That alone is reason enough to pay attention, but it’s also able to teach investors things about the labor market that don’t show up as readily in other data. It had been trending lower (and arguably, still is), but as was the case in February and June, total job openings popped higher into a position where a subsequent increase would break the downtrend.  Bonds were nearly unchanged before the data, but sold off abruptly in its wake.  Both 10yr yields and mortgage rates hit new long-term highs. 

Econ Data / Events

Job Openings

9.61m vs 8.8m f’cast, 8.92m prev

“Quits” 

3.638 vs 3.549 prev (lower is better for rates)

Market Movement Recap

08:36 AM Another rout overnight. 10yr up 3.9 bps at 4.724 (overnight high = 4.752).  MBS down just over a quarter point.

11:08 AM Weaker after JOLTS.  10yr up 7.7bps at 4.762.  MBS down 5/8ths.

03:06 PM Steady selling all day.  10yr up 12.1bps to new highs of 4.806.  MBS down more than 5/8ths.  

Published On: October 3, 2023 / Categories: Mortgage News /