Everyone is watching the value of their 401(k) plan go down. You should be watching it go down from “across the pond,” sitting at a sidewalk café in Paris. Anyone traveling in Europe is rejoicing at the exchange rate: Things are more affordable for American tourists this summer, with the exchange rate between the euro and the dollar now about equal. It’s the first time since 2002 (in the early years of the euro’s existence) that the ratio came close to 1:1, but could come at a cost of global economic stability. The Fed is on track to continue hiking interest rates by 75 bps per meeting to conquer inflation, in comparison to the European Central Bank, which is still hesitant to get too aggressive. EU recession fears are more pronounced than they are in the U.S., especially given the grim energy outlook and the shutting of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for annual maintenance. (We all have a chance at listening to the MBA’s Dr. Mike Fratantoni discuss the latest MBA economic projections.) Many Fed officials have already cemented expectations for a 75-basis point increase later this month, but the latest inflation report is putting 100 basis points on the table (Canada hiked by a similar amount on Wednesday). In fact, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool now puts a 75 percent probability for a full percentage point hike on July 27, with another three-quarters of a percentage point coming in September. (Today’s podcast is available here and is sponsored by EarnUp, an award-winning, consumer-first technology payments platform where originators and servicers can provide a borrower experience with flexible payment options that reduces risk and improves overall financial health. Today’s features an interview with EarnUp’s Zach Kruth on borrowers’ needs and what to do as we shift into a buyer’s market.)

Published On: July 18, 2022 / Categories: Mortgage News /