We came into Friday expecting the Producer Price Index data to carry more market movement potential than normal.  Two reasons for this: A) inflation data is important in general right now, and B)PPI comes out before CPI for this cycle.  In other words, perhaps there would be some cues for next week’s critically important CPI data.  PPI didn’t disappoint–at least in terms of being important.  It definitely disappointed if you were hoping to see bonds improve.  Consumer Sentiment data is also adding insult to that injury but thankfully this merely means the range is reinforced as opposed to being redefined. 
If anything, bonds had gotten a bit ahead of themselves earlier this week as they aggressively challenged the 3.50% technical level.  In fact, yields made a case for 3.45% with yesterday’s domestic session lows, but no matter which floor we use, the conclusion this morning is that bonds are moving back up into the “Post Powell Range” from the following chart.  It could just as easily be labeled the “Pre CPI/Fed Range” as those events next week are sure to create a new breakout.

Published On: December 9, 2022 / Categories: Mortgage News /