The combination of this morning’s ADP employment data and the preliminary GDP revision pushed yields slightly higher after a flat overnight session. We can also assume some degree of anxiety heading into the 1:30pm speech from Fed Chair Powell at the Brookings Institute.
In the bigger picture, a range of 3.68 to 3.84 continues to dominate the longer end of the yield curve with yields gradually rising inside that range so far this week.
When it comes to the shorter end of the yield curve, the excess pressure is validated by Fed rate hike expectations. Indeed this morning’s data produced a noticeable bump in the outlook for Fed meetings beyond the next one (the next one is seen as a 0.50% lock for quite a while).
In addition to the prospect of Powell addressing this outlook, it is also “month-end” for the market. We have a primer that discusses the implications on MBS Live (here it is).