An uneventful overnight session has given way to roughly unchanged levels at the start of another day without CPI.  The first 3 days of this week are all in the same boat in that regard: none of them host the December CPI data (due out Thursday at 8:30am ET).  The only other potential disruption between now and then is the Treasury coupon auction cycle which begins today at 1pm ET with 3yr notes.  This isn’t the biggest potential market mover among the auctions, but we have seen a reaction or two in the past.  In general, bonds are consolidating now after correcting off the lower yields at the end of December.

In the bigger picture, we still need to guard against the possibility that the correction is just beginning.  The following chart frames the consolidation as a very recent development (yellow lines).  Either way, a big beat/miss in CPI would likely be enough to defeat or confirm the red line trend.

Published On: January 9, 2024 / Categories: Mortgage News /