Welcome to the bond market on Thanksgiving week in a year with the fastest rate spike in 4 decades, driven by inflation. This year, it just so happens that Thanksgiving week falls between the two most important CPI reports in a generation. Actually, the true importance will be determined by the December 13th CPI release. If it sends the same message as the last installment, it all but confirms we won’t see rates higher than October’s in a long, LONG time.
With stakes that high, 3 weeks to wait, nothing of note on the calendar, and “holiday light” trading conditions, what can this week possibly be other than another moment in the countdown to bigger news? As such, a consolidation inside last week’s range is as good a baseline as any, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing so far.
Here’s an updated version of yesterday morning’s chart. Incidentally, today’s trading range is perfectly contained by yesterday’s trading range so far. Even if that ceases to be the case, it remains likely that this week’s range will stay inside last week’s range. Bottom line: bonds are consolidating sideways as they wait.
Today’s only remotely relevant calendar event is the 7yr Treasury auction at 1pm and even that’s a stretch. There are also a few scheduled Fed speakers (Mester at 11am and Bullard/George at 2:45pm). We’ve heard from both of them within the past few business days, and it’s hard to imagine a meaningful change in their messaging since then. Really the only wild card here would be a dovish correction from Bullard as the market had a very hawkish takeaway from his comments last week.