Unlike last week, the present example offers multiple scheduled economic reports that have consistent track records of causing market movement.  Key examples include both ISM reports, ECI, JOLTS, and of course the jobs report on Friday.  The Fed announcement lies smack dab in the middle on Wednesday afternoon where it is all but guaranteed that we’ll see another downshift in the pace of rate hikes (25bps).
As for this morning, bonds are off to a slightly weaker start owing primarily to hotter-than-expected inflation data out of Spain.  The following chart shows the relative movement in US, EU, and Spanish bond yields surrounding the announcement at 3am.  It’s the latest tidbit in a large body of evidence for the market’s hypersensitivity to any and all inflation surprises.

The chart above has overlaid y axes which set the highs and lows on the same visual level and adjust the y axes accordingly (only the US and Spanish axes are pictured.  The next chart shows how the movement actually compares in terms of outright change (aka “Absolute Change”) from a certain time in the past.

Published On: January 30, 2023 / Categories: Mortgage News /