Bonds Ultimately Shrug Off Stronger Jobs Data

Today saw a fairly impressive round trip for rates following the stronger-than-expected jobs report.  The initial reaction was clear and unsurprising.  NFP (and especially wages… recently mentioned by Powell) came out higher and rates immediately jumped.  Stocks also tanked on the news because both sides of the market were trading the Fed outlook. After the initial convulsion, bonds gathered their composure and began the long slog back to unchanged levels by the 3pm CME close.  Today’s video discusses a few ways to rationalize that, but ultimately, we would not feel the need to rationalize anything if bonds had ended slightly weaker. 

Econ Data / Events

Nonfarm Payrolls

263k vs 200k f’cast, 284k prev

Wages

0.6 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.5 prev

Unemployment rate

3.7 vs 3.7 f’cast/prev

Market Movement Recap

08:53 AM Sharply weaker after the NFP with a bit of a bounce now.  10yr still up 6.7bps at 3.576.  MBS down roughly 5/8ths of a point.

12:31 PM Decent recovery into the PM hours.  MBS down less than 3/8ths now which is roughly a half point above the AM lows.  10yr yields up only 5bps at 3.56 after being as high as 3.64 earlier.

02:34 PM Almost all the way back to unchanged levels now, both in Treasuries and MBS.  10yr up only 1bp on the day at 3.521.  MBS down only 3 ticks (.09). 

04:10 PM All the way back into positive territory and then some, albeit after hours at this point.  10yr down 2.8bps at 3.482.  MBS up just over an eighth of a point.

Published On: December 2, 2022 / Categories: Mortgage News /