As long ago as December 14th, we’ve had our eye on today’s 10am economic data as the next reasonably important moment for the bond market.  There simply wasn’t anything on the calendar in the meantime that had as much market movement potential as this morning’s JOLTS (Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey). Volume and volatility confirm the focus was not misplaced, but the result was so close to the consensus that the trading reaction has been mixed.  In general, the market has been defensive in the new year and it was up to weaker data to push back against this morning’s higher yields–something that’s probably happening after a bit of back and forth initially.

In the bigger picture, the most bearish way to approach the selling pressure in the new year is to consider it a rejection of a break below 4%, but that’s a bit too presumptuous in an environment that is likely to remain data dependent.  As long as the data doesn’t object, Tuesday and Wednesday morning’s selling pressure could merely represent a return to the prevailing trend.  From here, it will be up to data to keep rates in a downtrend or suggest the downtrend is over for now.

Published On: January 3, 2024 / Categories: Mortgage News /