Bonds Retreat a Bit. No Compelling Reasons or Implications

Bonds rallied to the best levels in months earlier this week but have been retreating since then.  At first, the retreat was gradual.  By Friday, it was a bit more pronounced, but still lacked any compelling scapegoats.  Earlier in the day, analysts pointed to China reopening after covid lockdowns.  Heavy selling in European bonds spilled over to Treasuries as ECB speakers struck a hawkish tone.  Traders also may simply have been squaring up positions ahead of a week with no Fed speakers and a round of Treasury auction supply.  Despite the slightly brisk losses, trading levels are right in line with the end of last week, so markets are effectively just waiting for inspiration before going on a bigger run.

Econ Data / Events

Existing Home Sales

4.02 vs 3.96 f’cast, 4.08 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:36 AM moderately weaker overnight with some additional selling early.  10yr up 6bps at 3.458.  MBS down a quarter point.

11:31 AM additional weakness. Reports of selling from “real money” accounts as well as tech-based algos.  10yr up almost 10bps to 3.493.  MBS down almost half a point.

02:33 PM Decent bounce heading into PM hours.  MBS down only a quarter point in 5.0 coupons.  10yr underperforming, up 8.3bps at 3.482.

Published On: January 20, 2023 / Categories: Mortgage News /