Momentum indicators are staples of technical analysis for a reason. While the exact timing and magnitude of market movement will always defy accurate prediction, it remains true that sufficient momentum in one direction builds a case for a push back in the other direction, especially in the bond market. The last 3 weeks of positive momentum have given way to a potential range-defining bounce.
The 2.70-2.75% range in 10yr yields had already played host to the last two bounces. With yesterday’s low yields just sneaking into that range, it’s an obvious candidate to at least consider for a resistance floor.
But here’s where we run into the limitation of technical analysis. If we didn’t know that NFP was coming up tomorrow or that CPI was on deck next week, perhaps we could read more into these patterns. As it stands, that data could easily set a different tone if it falls far enough from consensus. Conversely, the data could greatly add to the technical case for a bounce if the labor market is more resilient than expected or if CPI remains anywhere nearly as stubborn as last time.