Bonds rallied fairly sharply at the end of last week, largely in response to weaker economic data at home and abroad. In Friday’s recap, we discussed today’s baseline scenario being a pull-back to start the new week, with an eye on the three Treasury auctions and the Fed announcement all taking place by Wednesday afternoon. Early trading is reading right out of that playbook so far with a fairly classic range-bound bounce (these floor/ceiling levels are from several weeks ago after the early July bounce topped out).
There isn’t much on the calendar today–just the 2 year auction which usually doesn’t impact longer-term rates–but that will change as the week progresses. The focus is on Wednesday’s FOMC announcement (2pm ET) and press conference (230pm ET), but the late week econ data can also move the needle.