Big Intraday Weakness Against Backdrop of Bigger Picture Strength

MBS lost more than 3/8ths of a point between 1030am and 330pm today and 10yr yields rose roughly 8bps during the same time.  But even after those losses, the day-over-day gains were roughly the same size (i.e. MBS 3/8ths stronger and 10yr yields more than 7bps lower).  Credit the PMI data overnight in Europe for a strong start this morning and domestic PMI data at 9:45am for another injection of bond buying momentum.  The bigger picture is actually brighter dur to today’s movement (and data).  Well, brighter for bonds, not the economy…

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims 229k vs 227k f’cast, 231k prev

Market Movement Recap

08:40 AM Moderately weaker overnight, with all of the gains happening right at the EU open in response to weaker econ data.  10yr down 6bps at 3.10 and MBS up nearly a quarter point.

09:59 AM Bonds bulls started running after the 9:45am PMI data which showed slower growth and a big deceleration in prices.  10yr down 12.7bps at 3.033 and 4.5 UMBS up 5/8ths of a point.

02:02 PM Off the best levels of the day and slipping slowly since 11am.  10yr still down 10bps at 3.06 and MBS still up more than 3/8ths. 

03:47 PM Weaker momentum continues and has now erased more than half of today’s gains.  Bonds are still well into positive territory, but more than 3/8ths of a point below the highs in MBS.  10s are up more than 8bps from the lows, but still down 6+ bps at 3.093.  

Published On: June 23, 2022 / Categories: Mortgage News /