The holiday season was unmistakably marked  by a strong bias toward selling in the bond market.  All we could do was watch the weakness and hold out hope that the market was playing the role it often plays over the holidays whereby trading occurs in bigger chunks than normal and in random directions that lack compelling justification.  Those hopes are finding some validation in the trading seen so far today, which has already erased the entirety of last week’s weakness (or at least it HAD erased last week’s weakness before a big block trade at 10:27am gave yields a nudge back toward higher levels). 

One of the most promising developments so far this morning is the presence of roughly 20 new corporate bond announcements (that’s a lot).  Normally, a big day of corporate issuance would be pushing yields noticeably higher.  The resilience in the face of that issuance is a positive sign for new year momentum, all other things being equal.  It’s not enough to singlehandedly promise additional gains, but it does suggest bonds will be receptive if the incoming data is friendly.

Published On: January 3, 2023 / Categories: Mortgage News /